I’ve been thinking about the top eight for 2012. But something in the back of my mind seemed to say that each year, 4 teams that were in the top eight one season, fail to make it the next season. I call it the rule of four. Don’t believe me? Let go to the stats!
Let’s start in 2008. The top eight that year was:
1. Melbourne
2. Manly
3. Cronulla
4. Easts
5. Brisbane
6. Canberra
7. St George
8. New Zealand
Now let’s look at 2009.
1. St George
2. Canterbury
3. Gold coast
4. Melbourne
5. Manly
6. Brisbane
7. Newcastle
8. Parramatta
So Cronulla, Easts, Canberra and New Zealand dropped out of the 8.
The top eight for 2010 was:
1. St George
2. Penrith
3. Tigers
4. Gold coast
5. New Zealand
6. Easts
7. Canberra
8. Manly
Parramatta, Canterbury, Newcastle and Melbourne dropped out of the eight
2011
1. Melbourne
2. Manly
3. Brisbane
4. Wests
5. St George
6. New Zealand
7. North Queensland
8. Newcastle
Penrith, Gold Coast, Canberra and Easts dropped out of the eight.
Yeah, but that is just three seasons you say. But 2007 saw the same patter of four teams failing to make the eight form 2006. In 2006 the difference was three teams. In 2005 it was back to four as was 2004. 2003 only had 2 teams drop while 2002 it was three teams.
I’m still considering my top eight for 2012 but I will be applying the rule of four. Which is going to be tough as it is one of the more even competitions I can remember with a few smokies ready to challenge some of the establish stayers.
13 responses so far ↓
gilmae // Feb 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Wests, Manly, Brisbane, and New Zealand. To drop out, that is.
Shaun // Feb 22, 2012 at 6:09 am
Agree with two. Unsure about one. But the Tigers? Reckon they are one of the teams to beat. Marshall and Moltzen will great for Wests in 2012.
gilmae // Feb 22, 2012 at 6:30 am
Entirely following my gut on the Tigers
Mountain Boy // Feb 22, 2012 at 9:01 pm
Gotta be a few years back now to my ‘how the mighty do fall’ and vice-versa theories. Teams that not just win, but also those that just fall short, can see themselves at the bottom in a space of a year or two. Too many examples to demonstrate. So what it is? Whether desire and intensity are hard to sustain? The same somehow applies in reverse ie nothing like a spoon or near-enough-to to give teams the motivation to go straight back to the top. I might be proved wrong but recent winners St George and close-but-no-cigar Tigers could be destined for the bottom, while teams like Parra, Sharks, Gold Coast could be well worth a 30 week TAB forecast.
Shaun // Feb 22, 2012 at 9:42 pm
I don’t think Gold Coast will make it. They just don’t really have it in the 1-6-7-9 this year. Prince can still do it but his form the past few seasons has been down.
The more I think about the Tigers the better I feel about their prospects. They’d be my pick.
Anyway I’ve sorta revealed my top 8 elsewhere. I’ll expand over the weekend.
Shaun // Feb 22, 2012 at 9:43 pm
I haven’t done the research really but my impression is that every season there is one team that is favourite that inexplicably has a poor season and another team whose season is marred by injuries. You can’ t pick those.
Mountain Boy // Feb 23, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Has there ever been a team start a season favourite with a 5/8th playing halfback and a utility back thrown in at 5/8th? Apart from that, a team dessimated through a combination of injury, retirement, player departures, and the inevitable sacking. Is this your favourite? Really? Soon to have the look of a beaten favourite if you ask me.
Mountain Boy // Feb 24, 2012 at 9:55 pm
On the topic of Top 4 my predictions are: Canterbury, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Nth Qld. My bottom 4 (as in cellar dwellers): Canberra, St George, Wests, New Zealand. Four of the remaining eight to earn a semi-spot. I’ll say Newcastle, Cronulla, Parramatta, Penrith.
Eyes will get raised at the Gold Coast tip, but then did anyone out there have Penrith as their no. 2 back in 2010?
Shaun // Feb 24, 2012 at 10:08 pm
You talking about the Tigers? They have a great forward pack and tremendous back line. Fullback is a newbie but he can play.
There is always a smokey every season. I just don’t see the Gold Coast being the one. Backline even if with Idris seems fragile and not that many points.
But as I said, going to put some though into over the weekend and put up post on Sunday (have cricket tomorrow. Got 1st innings points and an outright could see us finish in 2nd spot or even 1st depending on results).
Mountain Boy // Feb 26, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Ultimately time holds the real answer. My concerns are the losses Fifita, Dwyer, Payten, Gibbs, Skandalis, Lui, Daniela. With Farah and Marshall both a year older, half a yard slower, and opposition that know the tricks now. Refs should also wise up to the keeping of the ball at the back of the scrum as a delay of game ie. time wasting – and should be penalised, rather than the offside penalties awarded up til now, which are so badly not in the spirit of the game.
The 2012 top eight prediction post | sidelined // Feb 27, 2012 at 8:24 pm
[...] of the eight. I’m not that much in favour of using last year’s form as a guide. Given the rule of four as well as injuries and just inexplicable poor form, some teams once bookies favourites will have a [...]
gilmae // Feb 28, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Referee should keep out of it. If the Tigers are holding the ball at the back of the scrum, push them off it.
Shaun // Feb 28, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Pushing in scrums? That is just crazy talk.