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NRL 2009 finals week 3 preview and tips

September 24th, 2009 by Shaun · 28 Comments

Before getting to the games this weekend, has the NRL finally achieved got to the stage where traditional suburban grounds just can’t handle the crowds for some games now? I’m not totally convinced that we have. The end of the season does get fans out to the games. The key will be to see what happens at the beginning of the new season and during the middle parts of 2010 when Origin tends to overshadow club games. If games are switched to the SFS for example and the crowds follow, then we may be onto something. A key factor will be clubs increasing membership numbers. That may take a few years but that will drive the NRL to being able to host regular season games at a full SFS or a near chockers ANZ.

But I do not want to see the demise of the suburban ground. A Sunday arvo at Leichhardt is one of the great days out at the footy and the NRL will be mad to try and take that away from the fans. But flexibility for clubs to change grounds for the big clashes should be encouraged. For such a difficult year for the game, the end of season shows the promise of a more growth for the game.

But 2009 still isn’t over yet.

Canterbury – Bankstown v Parramatta, Friday 7:45pm, ANZ Stadium

Well, the NRL has really stuffed up with the game by playing it a week early. Just joking but the build up to this game has seemed as if it was a grand final. At this stage, the crowd figure at ANZ should get over the 70,000 mark. A tremendous reaction to the rivalry between the two sides that needs no further exposition.

The Bulldogs rise to finish second from wooden spooners last year is one of the great stories of the year. A NRL fairytale beckons for the Doggies. On the other side, the Eels have their own magical tale as well. Written off by many (especially me) mid-way through the season, their remarkable turnaround in form is another one of the great stories of the year. Their footy has been brilliant and the run reminiscent of the Tigers in 2005. Regardless of the final result, both teams can be proud of their efforts this season.

But pride in the season may not be immediate consolation for the losers. To fall in the penultimate game will be hard to take as both teams have rightful claims to play in the grand final.

The forwards are evenly matched. I don’t think it will be like the last time when these two teams met and Fui Fui skittled Hannant in his opening hit up from which the Dogs never really recovered. Both packs will come out firing and the opening exchanges not for the faint hearted.

The Bulldogs are not to be taken lightly. Kimmorely is playing a great as ever and Ennis is a very crafty from dummy half. Patton is fine form at fullback and Idris will be dangerous close to the line. The edge the Eels have is their unpredictability in attack. Their off loading creates concern in the opposition’s defence and if they start popping passes with Burt and Hayne sniffing around the rucks then gaps will appear in the Bulldogs’ line. There also some defensive liabilities in the Bulldogs’ back line that the Eels are sure to test.

Last week against the Titans the Eels seemed a little flat. It has been suggested that their run may be in danger as the strain of sudden death takes it toll. It was more likely the short turnaround after playing a game in quite warm conditions that was the problem. The weeks rest will have done wonders for the Blue and Gold.

Some may try to scare Eels fans by invoking Paul Carige and 1998. Hayne the Redeemer shall change all that.

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos, Saturday 7:45pm, Etihad Stadium

If you live in Sydney, you’d be forgiven for not realising that this game is even on. If you live in Melbourne, you probably wouldn’t know either given the AFL grand final is on the same day. But the indicators are that 30,000 or so will turn up to watch the Storm do battle with the Broncos which is not a bad crowd.

Last year these two teams met in the semi final with the Storm winning by two points

The Broncos are also doing a late season charge. In danger of dropping out of the eight they have turned their season around after being thrashed by Canberra. Dave Taylor has been a big part of the success having the body of a forward and the skills of a back. But the danger for the Broncos (apart from some certain players for the Storm) is Alex Glenn taking over the half backs role from Peter Wallace. Never mind that Wallace had a poor Origin, he does well for the Broncos and has big match experience. He will be missed. A preliminary final is a confronting debut for any player and Glenn will be targeted by the Storm.

As for the Storm, they have quietly found their way to being one game short of a fourth grand finals appearance. I thought they looked tired and stale a few games ago but they have bounced back. Slater is making sure that he reminds everyone that Hayne is not the only dashing fullback in the comp. And Inglis tends to shine in the bigger games. The Storm also have a hard working pack of forwards that will be able to match if with the Broncos during the first 20 minutes.

But I have this nagging feeling that the Broncos aren’t done just yet. Yes I know the Storm deserve favouritism. The recent results and past history all point to a Storm win. But I have learned my lesson and refuse to write off the Broncos. I’m thinking this game will hinge on some Lockyer magic. The Broncos will be out for revenge for last year’s semi and this game will be a classic.

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Tags: NRL 2009 · Rugby League

28 responses so far ↓

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 24, 2009 at 11:45 pm

    Four teams still walk the tightrope, that thin but absolute and true line, that is the difference between unbridled euphoria and shameless despair. So who shall stand up and walk truely, and who shall faulter? Difficult. One thing is for sure, there will be two teams in each category by Saturday night. My guesses here are only that. I dont follow any of these teams, so at least, my comments with be without bias for a change!

    Last week, in hindsight, the Blue and Gold was not a very hard pick – seeing as both teams were Blue and Gold, that is. It was fairly clear, fairly early though, that Parra were always going to overpower their opposition. They did that pretty well and they should rightfully go into this game with great confidence.

    There were a couple of significant plays a couple of weeks ago, though, that have me with some real doubt. The first play was the Eric Grothe intercept. A great play that came off superbly, and arguably the one that won them the game, and the moment that kept their semi hopes alive. The second play was almost a replay from Grothe, but this time the intercept attempt failed badly, and another of Slippery’s sons cruised in for an easy 4-pointer in Parra’s right hand corner. Grothe Jr’s positional play in defence has caused him trouble throughout his career, and is why he was playing park footy not too long ago for quite an extended period. He has the strength of an ox, and with the ball is a wrecking-ball : he is of course his father’s son – but for some reason when singled out in defence, he has shown time and again to make bad reads, and bad calls. My question is, can Parra afford for him to make those bad calls when marking up against the likes of Morris, Goodwin, Idris, Roberts etc knowing that Kimmorley favours the pass to the left, and knowing that Hazem will be the one that gets to go for the extra 2 points. It is clear traffic will come Grothes way. Two weeks ago most watching saw a consolation try to the Dragons. I think what the Bulldogs saw was Christmas coming early. Bulldogs here. Sorry Shaun. You should take comfort in knowing that I’m often wrong.

    As for the other prelim, a similar weakness is apparent – well to the media and so-called experts anyway. The injury to Wallace from the cat-like ankle-crunch by Nathan Fien last week, seems to be a major loss to Brisbane. I dont believe that to be the case. It’s hard defence that won the Broncos the game last week, and now without one of their star backs, they will focus even more on their tough defensive approach. Melbourne will not be allowed to play their normal game, so I can see an arm-wrestle. One team will come out on top eventually, but I wouldn’t say it won’t be Brisbane. More to the point, I say it will be Brisbane.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 25, 2009 at 10:53 am

    What Grothe was doing against the Dragons was planned to contain Morris and it worked all but once. Grothe will be right. His partnership with Reddy has improved very much over the past few months.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 25, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    From what I saw – that deep backline movement ending in Morris (that has proven successful all year – and Canterbury also use the same play – coincidentally also ending in Morris) – only happened twice, both times it resulted in a try, one to Parra, one to Saints. Reddy may be the better defender, but his helping to cover Grothe could open up more holes as a result. (ie Morris draws the two defenders and gets a ball back inside). I could be wrong. I do think that Morris will be the go-to man. I will be keenly interested to see if young Eric has shown any Grothe in this area. If he has, I would be surprised.

  • Gravatar

    gilmae // Sep 25, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    Parramatta to win. Storm to win.

    I feel dirty. I am going for a team that contains Jarryd Hayne. I’m not sure I can ever clean this stain from my soul, but…if Parramatta and the Storm win, and then Parramatta beat the Storm in th Grad Final, it might be worth it just so I can laugh at Brett Finch.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 25, 2009 at 9:17 pm

    The first two players eliminated from the ‘09 Grand Final. Hayne suspended, and Cayless hamstring.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 25, 2009 at 9:45 pm

    3rd player out of the Grand Final – Matt Keating – suspended.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 25, 2009 at 10:43 pm

    ..but the rest of them are there.

    To the detriment of Parramatta, but let’s hope for the sake of Rugby League that the judiciary aren’t fooled into thinking that one player is actually bigger than the game.

  • Gravatar

    Bismark O'Measles // Sep 25, 2009 at 11:44 pm

    Well done Parra.

    To be honest, had they not been trying to be a little ‘over-creative’, they would have put another four on the dogs at least.

    Also, I can’t see why JH is on a charge. He didn’t lead with the boot when trying to stop the try and there’s no way he could’ve pulled-out of the tackle. No worries Jarrod… just appeal.

    Anyhow – I’ll be wearing the blue and gold in the cane lounge at Tangalooma… hopfefully against the Broncos so I can put it up thos QLD’ers.!!

    BIS

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 25, 2009 at 11:44 pm

    Hayne will walk into the jokediciary with God in his side. Though I’d much prefer if it was Geoff Bellew. I think both will get off. Hayne tried to pull out and Keating’s was a case of the tackle gone wrong.

    But what a game. I was exhausted by the end. That was befitting of a grand final.

    If it wasn’t the Eels, I’d be wishing for a Hazam fairy tale. I was a little sad to see him go. The hug between him and Hindmarsh spoke a lot about those two ornaments of the game.

    But as for the Eels. A bit of rope a dope then the magic unleashed.

    A key to their wins is to absorb the early hits and then grown into the game. The Bulldogs dominated the opening exchange but as they tired the Eels gained the upper hand. Poor finishing cost them the first half lead but the Bulldogs had little in attack. I did text to Bismark that the Eels would win the second half.

    And of course they did. The ability to offload tore the Bulldogs apart. But full praise to Jeff Robson. He may not be the most fashionable halfback in the comp but we liked the cut of his jib.

    It was one of the great Eels’ wins. The ghost of Paul Carige finally vanquished.

    A wag said the dust storm was caused by someone opening the Eels’ trophy cupboard. I hear that is true. But it does need a cleaning to accommodate what is to come.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 25, 2009 at 11:46 pm

    The great thing about the GF will be that Hindmarsh will captain. The sad thing is that Cayless may be like Steve Price in 2004.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 25, 2009 at 11:51 pm

    Agreed he didn’t lead with the feet. He wasn’t on report for that. He was on report for leading with the knees – Reckless, and Late and it resulted in a guy getting knocked out. If he ends up getting off that one, and Keating the worst chicken wing tackle of the year – then Karma will take care of the rest.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 26, 2009 at 8:17 am

    The NRL judiciary hammered in what could well be the final nail in the coffin that is Wests Tigers’ brave finals bid after suspending prop Bryce Gibbs for three matches on Wednesday night.
    Gibbs was unsuccessful in gaining a downgrade on his grade two dangerous conduct charge, with his only hope of playing again in 2009 being if the Tigers make it to week two of the finals.

    The tenth-placed Tigers need to win both of their last two matches to be a chance of a finals berth, but Gibbs won’t play any part in that bid after kneeing Luke Burt in the buttock as the Parramatta winger scored a try midway through the first half of Friday night’s NRL clash.

    Judiciary counsel Peter Kite SC claimed the reckless nature of Gibbs’ late hit on Burt deemed the charge worth of a higher grading.
    “It was reckless in the sense that he must have foreseen this incident occurring, but he carried on anyway,” Kite argued.
    Kite claimed Burt was in a vulnerable position when attacked by the Tigers front rower, adding “there’s no justification for the conduct” as he called for the higher grading in a bid to help eradicate the practice of tryscorers being attacked after touching down.

    karma.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 27, 2009 at 9:15 pm

    Sanity has prevailed and I have called off the angry mob scheduled to congregate outside NRL headquarters pending the judiciary. If any is interested in a couple of pitchforks, not even used and quite sharp, let me know.

    There have been comparisons of the Hayne incident to the situation Cameron Smith faced last season. Smith and Hayne received a similar grading. Smith’s trouble was his carry over points.

    Watching the Hayne incident over the weekend, it was a clumsy play but something that fullbacks do all week. Hayne was a fraction of a second late. You can see how he tried to position his body to minimise any contact though he wasn’t as successful as he would have liked.

    The Keating “Chicken Wing” look far worse. But again, if Hindmarsh was not in the tackle, Keating would have come out of it ok. Not that Hindmarsh did anything wrong. It was a pure accident that resulted from the mechanics of the tackle.

    However, a rule in which suspensions for relatively minor incidents are waived for big games may be the way to go.

    The Storm were very impressive last night. If the Eels were not their opponents then I’d be thinking a Storm victory. But at least we can see Slater v Hayne. They are unlikely to have a direct clash but their influence on the game will be great. And Reddy will have to play the game of his life to keep Inglis quiet. Watch for a moment in the second half where Inglis breaks free and just as he is in the clear, a shaggy haired number 11 somehow comes from nowhere to claim him and thus the game.

    But for the Eels to play the Storm it means that an Eels victory will be one that was earned.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 28, 2009 at 10:00 am

    The NRL had sold of the last ounce of integrity it ever held – for the sake of pleasing the fans.

    My vote for the new semis format – a phone-in lile Australian Idol, and Dancing with the Stars. Regardless of who wins the game, phone in and vote for your favourite team.

    Ben Hannant was right when he said, 13 Parramatta players did not deserve to finish the game. The NRL and media have lowered themselves unashamedly of bowing to a player over the game itself.

    What a great poll they took last week of who is the best NRL player. Hayne won it handsomely, but the voting choices included neither Billy Slater, Greg Inglis, Cameron Smith, nor Brett Stewart.

    This great game has been lost on me this year. I’ve never been in the business of associating with organisations with no integrity. It’s a sad indictment of where the game’s at.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 28, 2009 at 12:42 pm

    My intelligence needs no more insulting by the thought that Jarryd Haynes “clumsy” knee to the temple of Bryson Goodwin was a grade lower in severity as Bryce Gibbs’ “clumsy” kneeing of Luke Burt. Both players practically fell over the respective try scorers, but knees were the unfortunate first contact.

    I am trying hard to be fair about this, and fight off my hate for Parra from years ago. As it stands, though, it’s a fight that I’m not winning.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 28, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    Sorry MB, even Matt Elliott said yesterday there was a difference between Hayne and Gibbs.

    The main difference is that with Hayne, the ball was loose in the in goal when he made his decision to contest it. With the Gibbs incident, Burt had the ball and was going to score. Gibbs was not contest the ball or even making an attempt at a tackle.

    They are very different scenarios.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 28, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    I’m seeing a difference there. Although contact with the head causing loss of consciousness – albeit momentarily, must surely be viewed differently to contact with other parts of the body. In that respect, that’s where I see the difference, and I personally still graded it at least a 2.

    Probably the harder one to take is the Keating tackle. Ironically, a rule that originally brought in to counter the alleged tactics of Melbourne Storm. Friday was a classic example if ever there was one, which if precedents are of any relevance, has seen players outed for extended periods, yet nothing comes of this one, and sets up now a better chance to beat who else … the Melbourne Storm.

    I also think if the knee was attached to the body of someone like Billy Slater – I have no doubt a grade 2 or higher would have been handed out and he would be arguing his case on Wednesday night. My opinion is a player’s profile here has been taken into consideration when the grading was made.

    You get the sense that the NRL would love to have Parra as ‘09 Premiers. But previous chicken wing tackle suspensions, Cameron Smith Grand Final suspension, arguable best player polls… there’s plenty of ammunition now for the Melbourne Storm. (Much more the nemesis of Parramatta over the years, than the Bulldogs ever have been).

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 28, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    ..forgot to mention Finch with a point to prove to the club that sacked him.

    Anyway talk is getting cheaper by the second – its all about Sunday.

    Shaun, for you, I hope Parra win. If they do, I’m sure you have had decades of knowing how you might celebrate one day. I’m not a Parra fan, much the opposite, but for yourself, as a fellow league lover, I will make one 80-90 minute exception.

    For the most-part though, Melbourne Storm, who have fashionably faced the wrath and pursecution of the NRL for simply being too good for the rest in recent years – I hope they do it again in ‘09. I hope they stick it up the NRL for what would be a failed attempt at scripting a premiership result.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 28, 2009 at 9:33 pm

    MB, you are right that the Storm have been a nemesis of the Eels over the past few season. 1999 still stick in the mind and they bundled us out in 2006/2007. I’d say plenty of ammunition for us. And if you want to talk about chicken wings, well Cayless will tell you about one from playing the Storm a few years back.

    And as for Finch, he is a sook. He was told, as were a few other Eels players, that their spot wasn’t guaranteed. He spat the dummy as he didn’t want to do the hard work. I’d say the Eels have a point to prove to Finch. That in the end, those that work hard and take the knocks will get the reward. Inu and Smith were also given the same ultimatum as Finch. They chose to stay, got dropped to the NSW cup and fought their way back into the side and are in great form. Finch is just lazy leeching off the good work of others.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 28, 2009 at 10:15 pm

    Just scored two tickets to the GF in the mynrl.com 9:00pm allotment. Only 1000 were released and somehow Ticketek didn’t crash and I got through.

    Oh, I’m excited.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 29, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    tickets to this year’s Grand Final thru ticketek – up to $165 each

    tickets to this year’s Grand Final on Ebay – up to $500 or more each

    tickets to this year’s Grand Final in the hands of a Golden-Blue blooded fan – priceless

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 29, 2009 at 5:19 pm

    An Omen?
    -Weather forecasts predict Storm on Sunday

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Sep 29, 2009 at 5:52 pm

    …and afterwards clear skies of Blue and Gold.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 30, 2009 at 11:48 am

    Yes – there is one think guaranteed about weather forecasts, and that is, they offer no guarantees of it being correct.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 30, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    “thing” i think i meaned

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Sep 30, 2009 at 5:57 pm

    Might sound harsh on Cayless, but he will be a liability if he decides to play – he will have many times more chance of breaking down again than getting through the game. The smallest hamstring tear does not heal in a week – that is a fact. Contradictary statements earlier in the week saying it was only brusing and not a tear, and now saying the test later in the week will be whether it will “re-tear” ??!! – so I’m sure a tear it is. Taking 16 fit and 1 unfit into a Grand Final is not something to be toyed with. Once he broke down last week, it was clear to me, he wouldn’t be there on Sunday. I’m sure Parra are training as if he won’t be there – else they taking a massive gamble playing the sentiment card.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Oct 1, 2009 at 6:05 pm

    1998 lost preliminary final to Bulldogs
    1999 lost preliminary final to Storm
    2000 lost preliminary final to Broncos
    2001 lost grand final to Newcastle
    2002 lost semi-final to Broncos
    2003 missed top 8
    2004 missed top 8
    2005 lost preliminary final to Cowboys
    2006 lost semi-final to Storm
    2007 lost preliminary final to Storm
    2008 missed top 8

    Not being an Eels fan, I was unaware of the litany of suffering thats taken place even since ‘98. I’m sure if they win, lots of suffering and pain will be cured. Else – just more pain and suffering.

  • Gravatar

    Stephen Hill // Oct 2, 2009 at 2:04 am

    Gee having to purge myself of decades of Eels animosity, being a Bulldogs supporter growing up dead smack in the middle of Parra’s fan base. In Year 4 my teacher (as a joke) tied me up with a tug-a-war rope and put a “Parra to win” badge on my school uniform – luckily a few days later I had the last laugh (and I didn’t half rub it in).

    Gee it doesn’t seem that long ago that with schoolfriends their would be the endless bitching over which team was the “Team of the Eighties” – but then Parra went downhill for about a decade, and flattered to deceive early in the new millenium.

    Still should I forgive, maybe a short-term truce, in 2011 a young Barba-Mortimer half combination might look good, so for young Daniel Mortimer’s sake I’ll barack for the Eels. And I guess I have to admit the Eels were the better team on Saturday, playing with the open-enterprising spirit of the Tigers of 05 (I think the Dogs lacked an explosive back-rower to seal the deal). But don’t make this a habit, unless you want to give us Mateo to replace Beastwood. Still a lot better than seeing the Roosters, the Broncos or even bloody Manly doing the lap of honour.

    Also Hindmarsh probably deserves a GF ring.
    The ghost of Paul Carige is laid to rest (not that I won’t bring it up in jest when I’m around Parramatta fans)

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