Two weeks out and the final eight is still in flux. The Bulldogs have a chance to snatch the minor premiership. The Storm could (though it is unlikely) miss out on fourth spot. And the Tigers in 10th place are still a chance to play on in September. And while results will affect the placings, the teams from 5 to 10 are the masters of their own destiny. They must win and the battles will be intense.
Will Fortuna favour the bold or will she be veiled to the wishes of some teams? It is gonna to be one interesting weekend.
Parramatta v Penrith, Friday 7:35pm, Parramatta Stadium
If last week’s game against the Tigers was huge then this game is massive. The loser will likely need to start planning for Mad Monday. The last time these two teams met it was a try fest with defense being something that kept the crowd from the field. It will be different this time around. The Eels will be respectful and wary of the Panthers (especially Jennings and Pritchard) but Hayne is not the only weapon the Eels have. The Blue and Gold of course.
North Queensland v Brisbane, Friday 7:35pm, Dairy Farmers Stadium
After the second half capitulation against the Knights, the Cowboys waved their season farewell. And while they do rise for the Broncos, I wonder if mentally they will be able to compete? I’ve got to go with Brisbane. They have turned their season around and if they are serious about playing in the finals then will turn up and win easily.
Gold Coast v Wests, Saturday 5:30pm, Skilled Park
The Tigers season is on the line but with Gibbs out via the judiciary and plenty of injury concerns, beating the Titans maybe a game too far. Benji will give his best to carry the Tigers over the line but their forwards will find it tough against a stronger Gold Coast pack. The Titans won’t blow the Tigers away but will win at home.
South Sydney v St George-Illawarra, Satruday 7:30pm, ANZ Stadium
The Dragons are in a real danger of missing out on the minor premiership. They only thing saving them is their points differential and the hapless Bunnies. Souths have promised at times this year but consistency and injuries have cruelled their chances. The rivalry between the clubs may life Souths for the first half or so. But they’ll wilt like their finals chances did a few weeks ago and the Dragons will get the win.
Melbourne v Easts, Saturday 7:30pm, Olympic Park
The Storm’s easy final two games will give them a home final. But they do look like a team that is tired and bereft of ideas in attack. They’ll overpower the Roosters but it will mask the deficiencies in their game.
Manly v Cronulla, Sunday 2:00pm, Brookvale Oval
I’ve gotten perverse enjoyment from watching the Sharks over the past few weeks. They tackle hard and put plenty of effert in only to do something really mind boggling stupid when they get the ball. With Stewart back the Eagles will enjoy a nice stroll in the late winter sun.
Canterbury-Bankstown v New Zealand, Sunday 3:00pm ANZ Stadium
The Warriors found a win last weekend but away from home and facing the Bulldogs they haven’t a hope. Watching the Dogs in the first half on Monday, they knew they could score easily against the Roosters but were too impatient and hence made mistakes. If they keep their heads and let things happen they will rack up a score.
Raiders v Knights, Monday 7:00pm, Canberra Stadium
All season long, many have pondered what version of the Raiders will turn up on game day. The ones with the attacking flair or the inept bozos. The Knights have found their feet but the Cowboys showed they still haven’t plugged all the gaps. Given Canberra will still be chilly I’m going to have a plunge on the home side.
The Sure Thing: Melbourne
The Roughy: I shouldn’t but the Cowboys may have a surprise in them.
26 responses so far ↓
Leaving the Light on for Harold Holt // Aug 28, 2009 at 8:24 am
I’m putting $20 on the Sharks. @ $9.50 lulz.
Mungo Amanda // Aug 28, 2009 at 8:25 am
Oh and I also tip the Knights. The rest can look after themselves.
Mountain Boy // Aug 28, 2009 at 10:36 am
Penrith.
I don’t require 85 words to explain this one (yes, I counted). Penrith to do their talking on the field.
Nth Qld.
They talk about the battle out west of Sydney – when the real truth is the two teams with the most bad blood in the NRL are the Cowboys and the Broncos. Although Brisbane have always had the wood on their northern rivals – that doesn’t mean they will win. (look at Canberra v Storm earlier in the year)
Gold Coast.
They are travelling nicely and, of course, there is a trick to covering Benji (in a similar vein to tackling Gasnier). Benji, like the ex-Dragon Gasnier inevitably try to beat you on the outside. Defend from the outside-in (making them come back infield). From there they usually run out of options.
St George.
I know I can’t bet each way, but I do think if the Dragons don’t dominate the 1st 20 minutes, they may be in trouble. Their whole season has been based on getting on top of the other team early. I predict them to do this here (but if Souths are on top in the 1st 20 – I will wish my tip was the other way)
Roosters.
Inglis will not be match fit – so won’t be there for much more than half the time. Storm are actually travelling worse than the Roosters. The biggest plus for the visitors is they don’t have Finch anymore, and the Storm do.
Manly.
Sharks have added reason to show more metal this week, but may not be enough to overcome an increasingly ugly mob at Brooky.
Canterbury.
Not going all out on this one. I think if there is a team that is thinking about finals week 1 its the Bulldogs. They will obviously want Hazem to go out on a good note – but wondering if farewell games always go the right way.
Canberra.
Not much to play for, but almost a 6-hour drive for the Novo’s will be tough on a Monday – especially after lots of nervous energy will have already been spent watching other games on the weekend.
Shaun // Aug 28, 2009 at 10:59 am
You know, I’m sure Mungo has had some bets for lulz come in before.
MB, I bet there will be plenty of talking on the field.
Mountain Boy // Aug 28, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Can’t hold my tongue any longer.
All the talk is Parra, and the more the better I say. Does anyone remember the leaks in Parra’s defence last time? My stats also reveal that S. Hayne has reffed these teams in ’08, ’07, and ’06 – and every time the away team has won.
You won’t get any more out of me til a bit after 9pm tonight.
Shaun // Aug 28, 2009 at 12:28 pm
MB, over the last 6 rounds, Parra’s differential is +127 and the Panthers -18.
Bismark O'Measles // Aug 28, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I’ll go with whatever Shaun picks.
My heart was ripped-out and thrown (splat) against the wall, then trodden on, last week so life has no meaning for me any more.
See you on the 12th Shaun and good luck with your Eels.
BTW : I bought you a supporters scarf & the dog’s been using it to wipe his bum all week.
Hrmph.
BOM
Senex // Aug 28, 2009 at 9:20 pm
And a special request that that Tony Archer never referees a Wests Tigers game ever again, hey Bismark
Mountain Boy // Aug 28, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Nothing much I say will make any difference here. As soon as the first whistle blew (and then blew again..and then again..and then again..and then again..and then again) – well, there wasn’t much hope.
Well done to Parra (even though I’m so fuming about the how the game was just officiated away).
A big win by Dragons next week and a handy win for Penrith will cancel tonight’s result – and the wild celebrations tonight would be for a team that finishes 9th.
I believe in Karma.
Shaun // Aug 28, 2009 at 10:54 pm
MB, you are referring to that disgraceful call that Hayne dropped the ball when stripped by the Panthers aren’t you?
From where I sat, lack of fifth tackle options and not completing their sets hurt. Nevermind Parra’s obvious game plan was to make sure that Jarrod Sammut ended up with the ball.
There is a very good side in there though. Walsh and Secombe need to step up to first grade. They have the skills but just can’t seem to make that step.
And although Hayne had a hand in two tries, he was relatively quiet. At times in the first half the Eels forced the ball and that cost them points. Morts was outstanding and it is great to hear the name Mortimer doing it all for the Eels.
And the goal line defense was brilliant except for that one lapse.
And don’t underestimate Burt’s contribution. He is a big factor in the Eels roll towards September.
And stupid Cowboys.
Mountain Boy // Aug 29, 2009 at 12:03 am
Sorry for not paying much credit to Parra. There’s not much argument about the scoreboard.
Penrith still have a chance next week regardless, and I wouldn’t mind betting they will play accordingly. Lets hope they don’t take yet another bath in the penalty count next week and I’m not left wondering.
Yes, the Hayne strip went Penrith’s way – but get serious, it hardly evened things up. Video refs have been told not to change calls in general play – and you are probably aware of that. It did look like a loose carry at the time – so in hindight yes it was unlucky.
Nothing unlucky about when Burt kicks the ball into Sammut from point blank – ball goes out of play, and ball deemed played at by Penrith? Jennings tackles (I think Reddy) in-goal all in one motion – and deemed second effort?
Umteen penalties in the ruck – for We Know Not.
I’m watching the Broncos game now and seeing a ball passed 1 metre and a half forward with the goal-line as a guide called TRY. I’m seeing the Broncos just go over again – when it was clear that the ball has dropped at the last moment – the hand not retouching until after the ball hits the turf – the call TRY. I swear certain teams are getting everything, and other teams, nothing.
This phobia ain’t going away.
Shaun // Aug 29, 2009 at 12:18 am
I’m glad that vid refs are staying out of the general play. It would ruin the game otherwise.
The Panthers did get some tough calls go against them. But that was the least of their issues. Jennings only got the ball once where he needed it and the Panthers scored on the next play. Yes, he was only allowed to play as well as the Eels would let him but why didn’t he get more ball?
And Pritchard seems a flat track bully. Had a great game against tired defense against Souths but was nowhere to be seen tonight. Waterhouse could hold his head up. He tried hard all night.
Gus made a very good point during the call. The team that controls the play and runs hard and hits hard tends to get the calls their way. The Eels did that and the Panthers could not match them (though I thought the Panthers had better go forward during the games at time – especially the middle part of the first half).
As I’ve said before, you drop your discipline and you will be punished.
Bismark O'Measles // Aug 29, 2009 at 9:47 am
Jarrod Sammut’s funny!
Shaun // Aug 29, 2009 at 10:57 pm
I owe Mountain Boy an apology. No, not for Friday night but for a remarkable bit of prognostic analysis a few weeks ago. I can’t remember what round but MB did say that the Dogs were a chance at the minor premiership. His prediction could very well come true.
The Dogs need to account for the Warriors tomorrow first. Then the Eels need to down the Dragons friday week. And that could be on the cards given the relative fortunes of both teams.
What an absolutely fascinating end to the season.
And I must commend the Tigers for their courageous display against the Titans. The final score did not reflect how close the game was. One thing that needs to be addressed is Marshal’s goal kicking. Out wide he is more inclined to miss which has hurt them two games in a row now.
But Bismark, there is still hope. If the Tigers win next week and the Knights lose both their remaining games then the Tigers make the eight.
Bismark O'Measles // Aug 30, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Yep, I worked that out this morning too.
Let’s hope the Dogs ‘Do-A-Dragons’ and decide to save all their energy for the finals series.
I didn’t see last nights game but was following it on the NRL web site – looks like the Bunnies had complete control throughout. I counted a passage of play where the Buns had eight repeat sets about 15 minutes out from full time – no wonder they flogged ‘em.
The Roosters have lost, as expected, so it’s up to the sharks to make me rich – I put $5 each on the Buns, Easts and Sharks – what great odds!
I hope it’s as nice where you are today as it is in the Haberfield area… looks like spring is 2 days early.
BOM
Shaun // Aug 30, 2009 at 2:39 pm
A glorious day on the coast, Spring is indeed here but skipped pre-season training today. Still got mighty bruises last week where collected by a cricket ball.
I have put $10 on the Sharks as well. This is starting to become a crazy end to the season and the Sharks may pull off a miracle win.
Shaun // Aug 30, 2009 at 10:16 pm
At about quarter to 4 today, a cry of anguish was heard all the from The Shire to the Inner West onto the Central Coast.
The Sharks put on a brave, commendable performance only to be denied. I was watching the game and honestly, could not bear to watch that last few plays by Manly. I could sense what was going to happen.
A nice little wager almost came to fruition.
And some may ask about the footy gods and why they deserted the Sharks. Very likely they were at ANZ to farewell one on which they often bestowed their graces. But as they game Hasam a day to remember, the Footy Gods reminded us of their capricious nature with Kimmorely suffering a probably season ending injury.
This will cruel the Dogs chances.
Tomorrow’s game between the Raiders and the Knights is vital. A Raiders win opens the chance for the Tigers to gain a place in the finals.
As for next week, I can’t wait.
Senex // Aug 31, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Tonight’s game is also in Canberra, so the Raiders should have a good chance.
Mick // Aug 31, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Sorry, Shaun. 28 pts won’t make the 8 this year. Seven teams already have 29 pts or more, and either the Knights or Panthers will go to 29 pts or more after they meet next Sunday. Tigers are GOOOOOOONE for ’09.
Shaun // Aug 31, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Yes Mick, you are right. I forgot that the Panthers play the Knights on Sunday and that will prevent the Tigers from gaining a spot.
Bismark O'Measles // Sep 1, 2009 at 7:51 pm
… and not even a draw will do the trick.
Ho Hum.
Senex // Sep 1, 2009 at 11:32 pm
The Panthers or Knights making the 8 this year – that’s a laugh. No offence MB.
Bismark, if you look at the Tigers line up for Friday (why Friday?) they’re unlikely to win anyway.
Mountain Boy // Sep 2, 2009 at 3:55 pm
No, I didn’t a punch line in there anywhere Senex – My guess is you weren’t laughing either time Panthers played your mob this year !!
I think I know the secret to Penrith, and I will do my best to filter it through to the team via Brandy.
If you watch the game where we ripped the Titans apart, Luke Walsh had a blinder. He took on the line at every opportunity. Aha !! thats it!He then has the defence in two minds as to whether he runs himself or passes. Even if he ends up getting tackled – thats enough to keep the defence guessing.
All he does these days is pass or kick – so the opposition defence are just aiming up at his runners and getting it right every time.
Walshy – please get your hands dirty. If only you knew that teams are hanging back off you, but all you do lately is pass it off to someone else??
Mountain Boy // Sep 2, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Ah yes – quotes time…
round 20.
“For Parra it could be two weeks in a row against the Dragons!! That should make for an abnormally competitive semi. Fingers crossed.”
round 21.
“Don’t for one minute discount one of those 6,7,8 teams inadvertantly playing themselves into white-hot form for semis week 1. (ie. watch out teams 1,2, and 3)”
“One thing I did see was Canberra take good advantage of the Broncos compressed goal-line defence this week – with 3 man cut-out passes the rage, the Dragon’s favourite ploy of late. That, possibly only of interest to me?, makes for an intriguing match-up in a fortnight when the Saints travel further on down the Hume.”
Round 22.
“Highly unlikely, but still possible for the Bulldogs to win the M/P. Dragons with a much better for&against and would have to lose three of Raiders/Broncos/Rabbitohs/Eels compared to four wins for the Bulldogs against Cowboys/Roosters/Warriors/Tigers.”
“As I have said, this means that those teams will be on quite a roll of maybe 7 or 8 straight once they reach the finals – and I think all top4 teams better watch out come finals week 1.”
Round 23.
“I am of the thinking that a trip to Olympic Park or Skilled Park in finals week one may be a fruitful one for the visiting team – whomever that may be (The jostling may be to try and finish either 5th or 6th)”
“The Dragons run into the finals has turned quite tough – Broncos, Souths, Parra. The St George loss has given extra confidence to other teams I feel.”
Round 24.
“At best we were thinking Parra was playing the Dragons in round 26 to get a ‘ding-ding’ round 2 – 1st v 8th. Now it could be ‘ding-ding’ round 2 – 3rd v 6th!!”
See, I’m not totally full of #%@
Shaun // Sep 3, 2009 at 9:57 pm
MB, you have been a perceptive and valued commentor this year. I’ve enjoyed your comments immensely and sincerely hope that you are back here in 2010.
Not that the season is over just yet. Still 5 weekends to go.
Mountain Boy // Sep 4, 2009 at 12:19 pm
yes, I’m still counting too.