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NRL round 17 preview and tips

July 2nd, 2009 by Shaun · 23 Comments

Brett Seymour dumped by the Sharks for another alcoholic indiscretion. Two Roosters players get involved in a nightclub stoush. This season has pretty much followed a sadly predictable patter. Not what David Gallop’s approach with the Roosters is. Their behaviour pretty much reflects their position on the ladder.

But it is not all doom and gloom. Knights player Junior Sau rescued a young girl from a savage assault in Newcastle. I still say the good blokes well outnumber the idiots on our beloved code.

A code which enters Round 17 with the finals aspirations of a few teams just a glowing ember in the ashes of an ordinary season. But a win this weekend may keep that ember just alive with hope for a blazing run home. I’m excited. You’re excited and if he was still alive, Big Kev would be excited. Onward with the tips.

Brisbane v New Zealand, Friday 7:35pm, Suncorp Stadium

What Brisbane have going for them is that while they have been ordinary, so have the Warriors have been well below par themselves. This time last year the Kiwi team started their surge to the finals. This is very unlikely this season as the Warriors seem to have no idea what to do on the footy field. The Broncos have Hodges and Folau back on the park and that will be the edge they need to win.

St George Illawarra v Easts, Friday 7:35pm, WIN Jubilee Stadium

No hope. Absolutely no hope in hell. The Roosters will be struggling just to get some points on the board against the Dragons defence. Easiest tip of the round.

South Sydney v Wests, Saturday, Saturday 5:30pm, ANZ Stadium

Two teams about to be come 2009 also rans. I tossed the coin and it said “Souths” so I tossed it again and it came up “Wests.” I kept doing that for hours but the same result so I have no clue on this one. The Tigers have Benji at five-eighth but the half-back position is still a worry. There will be panic at one stage and they’ll throw the ball to Benji for a hail mary that will go unanswered as Benji attempts a triple-axle, double pumped, single handed no look pass that he ends up knocking on. I’ll tip Souths as they did show some signs against the Knights that they can play when they think about it.

Melbourne v Knights, Saturday 7:35pm, Olympic Park

I like this match up. Both teams are within one point on the ladder. The Knights have some form from Monday going into the game. And while the reputation of the Graveyeard is not as fearsome as it once was, the Storm at home are still an attractive proposition. But, and I have no idea why, I’m going for the upset.

North Queensland v Cronulla, Saturday 7:35pm, Dairy Farmers Stadium

Dear Cowboys, can you please out the Sharks out of our misery. Thanks, Shaun.

Canberra v Gold Coast, Sunday 2:00pm, Canberra Stadium

The Titans are sort of sneaking under the radar this year. They are in equal third spot yet not attracting the confidence that the punters have in the Dragons and Bulldogs. Canberra during the cold months are a tough proposition as the Storm found out last week. But if the Titans want the comp to take notice of them (and who knows, they may like escaping the attention) then a win over Canberra will confirm their 2009 credentials.

Penrith v Parramatta, Sunday 3:00pm, CUA Stadium

If the conditions are dry Sunday then this has all the potential to be a free flowing game. Penrith will be happy to have Jennings back but Petero is a big loss. Penrtih fans have hope in that the Eels inconsistency this year will be consistent. The hope for us Eels fans lies in that a second win in a row keeps the team in the hunt for the finals. The Blue and Gold to complete a rare double of wins.

Manly v Canterbury Bankstown

A great game for Monday night football. Brooky is not the fortress it once was. What I’ve liked about the Dogs this year is that in most games they’ve seemed to have a few extra gears than their opposition. Manly will test them early but I reckon the Dogs will have too much in the end.

The Sure Thing: I know there have been suggestions for a name change. How does the Propensity for Prognostical Calamity sound? I should do that poll. Anyway, a great test for the power of The Sure Thing. 1 v 16. Surely The Dragons can overcome the curse of The Sure Thing?

The Roughy: The Knights have really generous odds. And the Titans and Bulldogs are attractively priced as well.

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Tags: NRL 2009 · Rugby League

23 responses so far ↓

  • Gravatar

    gilmae // Jul 2, 2009 at 9:54 pm

    What’s wrong with just “The Mocker”?

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 2, 2009 at 9:56 pm

    Nothing. I like that one.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 3, 2009 at 11:00 am

    Seems of late, a lot more like the Not-So-Sure-Thing.

    New Zealand
    Easts – Go Kiss of Death :)
    Souths
    Newcastle
    Nth Qld
    Canberra
    Penrith
    Manly

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 3, 2009 at 11:05 am

    The last two weeks you have described it yourself as “the curse… “.
    The Curse.

  • Gravatar

    Bismark O'Measles // Jul 3, 2009 at 5:17 pm

    Broncos (by 7)
    Dragons
    Rabbits
    Storm
    Cows
    Raiders
    Panthers
    Dogs.

    I think I’ve got tix for the Rabbitohs Tigers cos Svetlana bought them by mistake when she was trying to buy the SCG tix last month…

    As for those poor old Bunnies… they haven’t seen cooey of a point since that ridiculous scrum incident. I was watching the scrum pack on last Sundays game and that rule seems to have gone away again… looks as though you just have to hold your position, not get your noggin in and stay in.

    This would seem to justify the rule change in the first place which was to stop the first bunch of jokers who could get there from stopping the clock and then getting the right crew in to do the packing – tough call on the poor old Bunnies though… the only team this year to have the crappy rule enforced before relaxing it to workable.

    Thanks for cursing the Dragons by the way… I don’t give a poo who wins that game and hope they both (by some bizarre Harrigan-style rule) lose.

    bom

  • Gravatar

    Bismark O'Measles // Jul 3, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    Hey… Billy Big-Chin is back for the Bronco’s!!

    Welcome back Tony.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 4, 2009 at 1:13 pm

    Dragons were very impressive last night. Like the Bulldogs, they seem to have that something extra. The Roosters gave it their all and the first half lead was well deserved. But footy is a game of two halves as they say.

    A good point about Soward is that Bennett doesn’t reckon he’ll be ready for Origin until he plays a finals series. That is not a bad observation. But if he is good enough then he is big enough.

    I wouldn’t be surprised at a Pearce/Mullen halves combination announced Monday.

    I didn’t watch the Broncos v Warriors. The yellow strip scared the bejesus out of me so I went to bed.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 4, 2009 at 3:39 pm

    Dodgy deals at the Eels.

  • Gravatar

    Bismark O'Measles // Jul 5, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    Well, that’s the Bunnies done for 2009.. after such a promising start to the season – top in r4.

    I didn’t go in the end for one reason or an other (family in mourning) but Svetlana took little Pixi Frou-Frou and they left in disgust half way though the second half.

    Ho Hum… let’s get behind the Tigers eh?? Got Tix for Leichhardt in 2 weeks time (you & Alan coming Shaun) and Pixi’s now got all the gear including the big blow up pointy finger!

    Enough of this… taking the fam to the Austrlian Museum today! Yuipeee

    BOM

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 5, 2009 at 2:26 pm

    I don’t blame Svetlana and Pixie. But really, when Souths let the ball bounce from the kick off and the Tigers scored close on half time, that was a sign of things to come.

    Looking forward to the 19th! Leichhardt on a Sunday arvo. Nothing better!

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 5, 2009 at 5:52 pm

    BOO Yay !!

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 5, 2009 at 8:53 pm

    A keen and willing affair and a great win for the Panthers for lots of reasons. Sorry Shaun – I know the western derby is bigger than State of Origin in lots of ways – probably hurts more than seeing NSW go down too when you lose. Nothing too pretty – apart from when Jennings had the ball – but a win that I think will do wonders for a team that can struggle with confidence after a couple of losses. They play Parra again, and also Souths twice more too – and who knows where they can go, if they get on another roll from here.

    Back to Friday – The most disappointing thing in a year when St George are playing good football for a change, they are seeing more breaks come their way than Liverpool Casualty Dept. Was it mere coincidence that the Roosters did not have a possession until 8 minutes and two tries down into the second half ? I have a hard struggle believing so. The poor old Chooks definitely matched the Dragons in every Dept. in the first half – including intensity. I’m sure they were up for the second half but what a difference an avalanche of possession can do. Another great tight game spoilt in my books. Im not saying the Dragons may not have run away with it – they might well have – but it would have been nice to see it without all the extra bullshit help. You know if a story ever came out that gambling amongst NRL refs was rife, I would be the first one to say, yeah, this all makes sense now. All these dodgie decisions – always seeming to favour one team in a match.

    Note – that no, I haven’t heard such a story, and so until I do, I just have to continue to wonder each and every game about the things that go on.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 5, 2009 at 9:37 pm

    Jennings did play well Mountain Boy. He’ll be back in Blue tomorrow night. Congrats on the win as it was deserved. And good luck for the run home.

    An exciting game that either side could have wrapped up earlier with committed defense. I’m sure that if Parra had another two minutes they would have scored. In fact, I’m going to go back over the game and tally up the stoppages of play and ensure that Parra were not denied an extra few minutes of time…just joking.

  • Gravatar

    Bismark O'Measles // Jul 5, 2009 at 9:54 pm

    There’s nothing better than a good high scoring game – the fans certainly got their money’s worth.

    A distinct lack of dumb calls from the Ref / Pocket Ref / Video Ref as well.

    If anyone was to blame for the Eels lack of a win, I would have to poke it firmly at poor old Fui Fui who chose the wrong time to do the wrong thing when it was on the line.

    At least you can enjoy the season without that silly nagging hope that they might just scrape into the top 8 hanging over yer poor old noggin…..

    Ticked-off that I even considered the bunnies might win… cost me 7/7!

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 5, 2009 at 10:26 pm

    Forgot to note that the Chooks certainly put a scare through the Sure Thing. I heard the Sure Thing actually required changing it’s shorts at half time – and that seemed to make all the difference.

    (1) v (16) – and (16) did well enough here for the legend to continue a while longer yet ….

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 6, 2009 at 10:09 am

    Mountain Boy,

    The Roosters are coming last so I have no trouble believing that they had a period of no footy.

    The first try to the Dragons did come off a penalty but the second was off a Roosters mistake. Yep, they may have had a good first half but 6 points down should (and it was) nothing for the Dragons in their current form.

    And The Sure Thing wasn’t scared. The Dragons are on top of the comp for the reason they are a good footy team. The Roosters are on the bottom because they are rabble. The Dragons weren’t playing that bad and when they stepped up a gear, the Roosters had nothing.

    But a woeful round of tipping for me. I need the Doggies to win just to break even.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 6, 2009 at 5:17 pm

    A lot of Friday’s Dragons/Easts reminded me of the not so long ago Bulldogs/Penrith game. The much lower rated team really took it to their opposition and dominated for large chunks of the game. In both cases a few costly errors, the difference. Its a pretty bold thing to assume then, that a couple of teams are two streets and one avenue ahead of the rest this year – just because they are getting away with the bikkies.

    Take a form-line between Manly who play Bulldogs tonight and then Dragons next week, and see if the top2 now are still the top2 in a fortnight.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 6, 2009 at 5:29 pm

    Oh – and Bennett’s thinking (disguised as media manipulation thoughts) on Soward and Origin is a lot more to do with how he thinks the Dragons go without a Soward, than how NSW go with one.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 6, 2009 at 10:20 pm

    That was the game of the year. Manly through everything at the Bulldogs. And the Dogs, a little off their attacking game, repelled wave after wave of Manly attack in the second half. Possession took it’s toll as it does and Manly finally cracked the line.

    A draw would have been a fitting result. The game turned about the 77th minute when instead of throwing to Kimmorley who was set for a field goal, Ben Roberts had delusions of grandeur and asked for the ball on the fifth. He ran a stupid play that resulted in a shocking pass. Manly then ran down the field from the change over and scored the final try soon after.

    Still, that was the game of the year. The second half was incredible.

    Very impressed by the effort of both teams.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 6, 2009 at 10:26 pm

    I think Manly and the Dogs will struggle next week.

    Manly because they’ll have possibly L’Estrange and Matai out through suspension. Then Watmough, Perry and Williams on Origin duty. Plus this game took a lot out of them.

    The Dogs missing Kimmorely and Ennis will lose a lot of their mongrel so to speak.

  • Gravatar

    Dave55 // Jul 6, 2009 at 11:51 pm

    That was a great game Shaun.

    Missed the Matai incident though… what was he on report for? L’strange might get a week at most but will prob be OK with an early plea.

    I think Manly can do OK with the Origin players out – Bailey and Farrer have been playing well and with Cuthbertson, Hall, Rose and Kite to play instead of the forwards Manly should still be competitive against the Dragons. Less sure about the Doggies next week – they might be missing a couple through suspension as well.

  • Gravatar

    Shaun // Jul 7, 2009 at 9:50 am

    Matai wasn’t place on report but he put a high shot in Warburton who left the field with a broken jaw. Yet to be cited but if he is then a few weeks on the sideline.

    Dragons v Sea Eagles next Sunday is going to be a ripper of a game.

  • Gravatar

    Mountain Boy // Jul 7, 2009 at 5:38 pm

    As fair as they are travelling so far – I wouldn’t reckon Penrith without Jennings, Civoniceva, Waterhouse, Coote, Gordon, Pritchard and Elford to be a sure thing against anyone, even South Sydney. Not sure who the captaincy goes to now that Waterhouse is out – 18 year old W.Graham ?? (They said Pup was a young captain..)

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