…perhaps a little perplexed. Except Mountain Boy with this comment:
Most people down in the haze of Sydney are thinking that 7 roughies just got up. But in my eyes only 4 roughies got up this week. Roosters should have been posted favourite at home to beat Parra, same goes for Penrith against the Tigers, and the Knights against Manly. so in my books 4 favourites, 4 roughies – not far from a normal round. And yes, the air is clearer up here.
(Apologies for starting that last sentence with a conjunction)
Some merit here though one could argue about the Knights/Manly game (given the Knights injury toll) and that Parra had form against the Chooks at the SFS. But it does lead to some interesting questions.
Are Manly that useless without Stewart? Are Souths the real deal this year? Has there been a big change in the NRL pecking order?
I’ll sit on the fence as I reckon we’ll need a few more rounds but the signs are there that some teams are on the slide. Especially Cronulla. Manly’s season is in tatters. Assuming 28 points is the cut off for the eight this year, they will need to string together a good sequence of wins to make the eight. The top four is almost beyond their reach already.
The Warriors have been the big disappointment so far (oh, and the Eels but that is par for the course). Injuries have hit them hard and exposed a lack of depth. Mt Smart is not the fortress I though it would be.
The surprises are Souths and the Titans. Souths are leading the comp and for the sake of their fans, I hope it is the sign of a good season. Not a false dawn and where Souths falter mid-season. I haven’t really seen a Titans game this year and will make sure I check them out this weekend.
The tipping has been amiss but I do remember rounds last year when things went pear shaped. I confess that last year’s form (and I’m not the only pundit guilty of this) has influenced selections for the first four rounds. This weekend I shall ascend to rarefied realms as Mountain Boy suggests and cast a keen and clear view over the competition.
And yes, that means I will not be tipping the Eels.
8 responses so far ↓
gilmae // Apr 8, 2009 at 12:46 pm
I tried and failed to summon the words on this yesterday, but I’ll try again:
I though there was partly the Titans beginning to become a solid team and partly Melbourne getting a bit blase.
Cronulla have vanishly little to offer in attack and should be considered a roughie in all games *despite* their defense, particularly against a team that bought some excellent players.
New Zealand are being perhaps a little bit too much credit, and Souths not enough.
Tigers have got away with it too much this year with their come back routine and it was inevitable that they would get into a game where they have to come back in the second half and run out of steam. Close to half of Penrith’s points were scored in the last twelve minutes, right? After Wests expended a ton of energy coming back. That game was two roughies playing each other.
I had a niggling thought when the Brisbane game was about to start that St George should be a dead cert, but really, I was basing that on Brisbane having lost a chunk of players and Wayne being Wayne. Wish I’d listened to myself :- )
I have no idea what the deal is with Manly; whatever it is, I will be sacrificing many arabica beans to Cino every week to ensure it continues.
ps I don’t know whether to sympathise with you or offer my congratulations on the Eels finally getting rid of the boofhead. Take whichever you like.
Shaun // Apr 8, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Canberra have the same problem with the Tigers and their defense. They looked like running away against the Cowboys and despite how crap the Cowboys were playing, NQ were still in a chance to win the game.
And agreed on Manly. Long may they remain at the bottom end of the comp.
Mountain Boy // Apr 8, 2009 at 2:18 pm
No doubt that there will be big differences between last year’s table and this years. Its only natural. It does happen each year though. Have a look at this litany of rags to riches stories…
Cowboys : 2000 Wooden Spoon 2001 2nd last 2005 Grand Finalist;
Panthers 2001 Wooden Spoon 2003 Premiers 2004 Preliminary Finalist;
Tigers 2001 3rd last 2002 3rd last 2004 3rd last 2005 Premiers;
Bulldogs 2002 Wooden Spoon 2003 Preliminary Finalist 2004 Premiers;
Manly 2003 2nd last 2004 3rd last 2007 Grand Finalist 2008 Premiers;
Warriors 2000 2nd last 2002 Grand Finalist 2004 2nd last 2006 Semi-Finalist 2008 Preliminary Finalist;
Newcastle 2005 Wooden Spoon 2006 Semi-Finalist;
South Sydney 2006 Wooden Spoon 2007 Semi-Finalist;
Canberra 2007 3rd last 2008 Semi-Finalist.
There’s proof that it doesn’t take long to learn from coming last or near-enough last. So who were the last 3 teams in 2007 ? Penrith, Newcastle, Canberra – and 2008? Bulldogs, Cowboys, Souths. People will wrongly right these teams off for coming down the table, but as demonstrated – they are the teams to watch out for.
Shaun // Apr 8, 2009 at 2:44 pm
MB, IIRC the Bulldogs got the wooden spoon in 2002 due to losing points for salary cap breaches. They were well in the hunt that season till then.
But the rest of the list is interesting. However, after Monday’s performance I’m doubting my prediction that the Cowboys will have a good year. They are a rabble.
Btw, formatted you comment just to make it a little easier to read.
Jason // Apr 8, 2009 at 3:06 pm
They (Cowbs) are a bloody rabble at the moment. It’s heartbreaking. People talk about the forwards as the problem, but I reckon it’s Trav Burns – the combination just isn’t gelling.
gilmae // Apr 8, 2009 at 3:22 pm
I seem to remember the Bulldogs were on track to be minor premiers in 2002.
The other question we should be asking is, what poor saps are going to be asked to pull on sky blue jerseys with 6 and 7 on the back in a couple of months? Pierce, wossisname in Brisbane and Orford for 7, but who in 6? Will NSW selectors learn a lesson, or is there another Greg Bird?
Mountain Boy // Apr 8, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Agreed. Possibly Bulldogs shouldn’t be in that list I wrote. Though they did finish 4th last in 2000. I also am not saying that the teams that have finished down the table last couple of years will now be the top 6 teams of this year. That was never said. Although I can feel fairly confident there will be a team or two from that list that will do very well in ’09.
Scott Ferguson // Apr 8, 2009 at 10:05 pm
7 outsiders last week, so to balance that out will we have 7 favs this week? Punters backing favourites this year will be getting skinned…