When I started doing this, it was partly to keep a record of the reliability of bookies’ odds. I wanted to do this to (a) test the strength of such predictions and (b) see if the bookies’ odds could be believed in other fields, such as tipping Federal elections. Keen readers of other blogs, the sort where politics is freely discussed, will be aware that the Howard Government is against stiff odds to win that election.
Well, after week 8 of the footy season, and in week whatever of the-as-yet-undefined election campaign, the punters are doing quite well, thank you very much. They have so far picked 43 games of the 64 – a success rate of 67%. Five is not doing quite so well, but has tipped 38 of the 64, a success rate of just under 60%. The punters are, so far, more right than me about the results of the football. Let’s hope they are also more right than me about the odds of John Howard holding office come December. I feel the swing is on and if the punters do, they might well be right!!
So, here are the week’s games and here are the odds:
(83% / $1.22) Dockers Saints ($4.00 / 17%)
(17% / $3.40) Blues Crows ($1.28 / 83%)
(22% / $2.25) Hawks Eagles ($1.60 / 78%)
(64% / $1.78) Lions Magpies ($1.96 / 35%)
(18% / $3.30) Tigers Bombers ($1.30 / 82%)
(59% / $1.94) Bulldogs Swans ($1.80 / 41%)
(22% / $2.25) Demons Kangaroos ($1.60 / 77%)
(70% / $1.75) Power Cats ($2.00 / 30%)
I like the Dockers, the Crows, the Hawks (an upset if they win), the Lions, the Bombers, the Swans, the Demons, who are due a win and do well against the Roos, and the Cats.
4 responses so far ↓
Club Troppo » Missing Link - Thursday 24 May // May 24, 2007 at 10:49 pm
[...] Five shares her Round 9 AFL tips (she’s now starting to do better than the bookies, too). [...]
Five // May 27, 2007 at 6:19 pm
I’m typing this as the half-time scores at Aurora Stadium stand at 16 to Port and 86 to the Cats, so I’m going to take a chance and declare the game for the Cats. I’ve had a good round, tipping 6 and lifting my score to 44, so I am chasing down the punters, who sit on 47.
That number 47 is some sort of magic number this week, as it’s the score held by the leader of my tipping comp, and by a good friend with whom I’m currently competing. He was insufferable last week because he tipped 8. This week he managed 7 (he chose the Pies, I didn’t). Both of us tend to tip against the punters, even though the aggregate is roughly the same.
And next weekend I will be at the SCG, sitting in the grandstand, hoping against hope that the Bombers can win three games in a row and down those dastardly Swans at home. It’s been at least five years since the Bombers have played that ground, but it’s a more natural field for us than the open spaces of Homebush Bay. Fingers crossed!
Felicia_af // Jun 11, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Hallo!
Check this out!
*
Brian_gk // Jun 11, 2007 at 10:28 pm
At last…
*