sidelined

When I started doing this, it was partly to keep a record of the reliability of bookies’ odds. I wanted to do this to (a) test the strength of such predictions and (b) see if the bookies’ odds could be believed in other fields, such as tipping Federal elections. Keen readers of other blogs, the sort where politics is freely discussed, will be aware that the Howard Government is against stiff odds to win that election.

Well, after week 8 of the footy season, and in week whatever of the-as-yet-undefined election campaign, the punters are doing quite well, thank you very much. They have so far picked 43 games of the 64 – a success rate of 67%. Five is not doing quite so well, but has tipped 38 of the 64, a success rate of just under 60%. The punters are, so far, more right than me about the results of the football. Let’s hope they are also more right than me about the odds of John Howard holding office come December. I feel the swing is on and if the punters do, they might well be right!!

So, here are the week’s games and here are the odds:

(83% / $1.22) Dockers Saints ($4.00 / 17%)
(17% / $3.40) Blues Crows ($1.28 / 83%)
(22% / $2.25) Hawks Eagles ($1.60 / 78%)
(64% / $1.78) Lions Magpies ($1.96 / 35%)
(18% / $3.30) Tigers Bombers ($1.30 / 82%)
(59% / $1.94) Bulldogs Swans ($1.80 / 41%)
(22% / $2.25) Demons Kangaroos ($1.60 / 77%)
(70% / $1.75) Power Cats ($2.00 / 30%)

I like the Dockers, the Crows, the Hawks (an upset if they win), the Lions, the Bombers, the Swans, the Demons, who are due a win and do well against the Roos, and the Cats.