This is a test, for myself as much as anyone. Here’s the reasoning behind this week’s tipping. Odds are now in, so let’s have a look at how I’m likely to fare. (Note, I am on 11 tips, punters are on 16, which is where most of the Sydney Morning Herald’s expert tippers are too – I’m tipping as bad as Troy Luff, and better than Caroline Wilson).
Tigers v Bulldogs – Bulldogs, because they are a better team, even if the Tigers are due for a win. 69% of punters agree with me. Firming to 75% by Friday.
Magpies v Power – Power away from home, on the back of an exhausting defeat, versus a resurgent Pies. Pies it is. 69% of punters agree with me, although with odds of $1.88 to win versus $1.85 there’s really nothing in it. Weakened to 68% by Friday arvo.
Saints v Bombers – Bombers, because I can’t tip against my own team, but I also reason that the Saints will be cocky, having downed Doggies last week, and the Bombers will be angry after a 3-point loss, so we are sure to triumph. (These thoughts are evidence of why I’m such a shit tipper). 75% of punters agree I am a shit tipper, and have backed Saints.
Kangaroos v Lions – Lions, without a shadow of a doubt. Although it could be an upset, given how cruel Matthews has been to the Roos this week … hah! 82% of punters agreed with me on Thursday – now it’s 87%.
Crows v Swans – Crows, because they are bloody firing, are at home, up against a team that travels poorly and have a history of putting the Swans in their place. 57% of punters agree with me (now 60%).
Hawks v Cats – If the Cats were at home this would be easy … both teams won last week but I tend to think you do better after a small win than the thumping margin Cats clocked up, so Hawks it is. I am prepared to revise. Only 27% of punters agree with me, but I’m going to stand firm – the Hawks have won their last two clashes against this team, and their win-loss ratio this season is even.
Demons v Dockers - Dismal Demons against Deflated Dockers. At home advantage to Demons. Only 33% of punters agree with me. With more Demons injured this week and with the wounded pride from the Headland issue putting fire in the Dockers’ belly, I’m changing my tip to Dockers, fading to 25%.
Eagles – Blues - Eagles have been upset at home before, especially after a big win. Carlton can surprise. Bugger it. After Selwood’s slur I think I will tip against them. 92% of punters think I am insane, and I may be, because Carlton haven’t beaten the Eagles since round five in 2004. But I will stand firm, and go down fighting! Even though by Friday just 6% of punters had money on Carlton to win.
4 responses so far ↓
TODD // Apr 18, 2007 at 4:37 pm
fairly disappointed in your pick for sunday’s eagles /carlton clash…normally you’re all over it like bling on mr t but after your selwood swipe fair dinkum you can blow it out your backside m.e.
cheers, todd. ( one-eyed eagles and proud as punch )
Five // Apr 18, 2007 at 9:34 pm
Thanks Todd. Have a nice night. I’m still going to pick Carlton. Just because you dropped in.
And for the record, I didn’t pick the Weagles last week.
Five // Apr 22, 2007 at 11:41 am
So far so good … Bulldogs were indeed a better team, there really was nothing in the Port-Magpies clash, though I tipped the wrong side, the Bombers triumphed over the Sainters (yay!), the Crows did defeat the Swans and the Lions really were upset by the Roos. Pity I didn’t decide to back my instincts on the last.
So far Five has three, compared to the punters’ two.
Five // Apr 23, 2007 at 9:14 am
And after the weekend, she has 5, and the punters have just four. Had Five not let her heart rule her head, she would have won six! I’m still playing catch up with the Punters, but more careful thought should ensure better tipping scores.
Punters’ score – 20
Five’s – 16