ESSENDON WON …. THEY WON!! THEY BEAT THE CROWS – AT HOME
OK, so we won our first game last year too, against the Swans, and were down the gurgler just two weeks later, but don’t you just love the first round of the season, when hope springs eternal (in autmn – er, should it be ‘hope autumns eternal’ or just ‘hope autumnal??).
This was, even at this early stage, an upset round. Here are the winners and losers, with analysis taken from Oztips. If you look at the percentage figures, in brackets, you can see who was favoured to win by the Oztip tipsters:
(65%) Demons (9.8 62) Saints (13.15 93) (34%)
(43%) Kangaroos (10.19 79) Magpies (12.10 82) (57%)
(86%) Dockers (16.9 105) Power (19.7 121) (13%)
(85%) Lions (9.15 69) Hawks (6.8 44) (14%)
(80%) Swans (10.13 73) Eagles (11.8 74) (20%)
(86%) Crows (10.14 74) Bombers (16.9 105) (14%)
(75%) Bulldogs (17.11 113)Cats (13.15 93) (24%)
(67%) Blues (15.25 115) Tigers (15.8 98) (33%)
So, on that reckoning, the upset wins were Saints, Power, West Coast (who’d had a very bad pre-season experience and were undermanned) and the Dons, who last time they were in Adelaide got thrashed from one end of the field to another.
For the record, I picked respectably, choosing four of the winners – Essendon, Blues, Bulldogs and the Lions. My tipping comp are demonically good at it, but I am pleased to say that at the moment I sit third on the ladder. Just like my team, the Bombers. We’ll see how long either of us lasts.
The reason I think these stats are interesting, is that I am keenly interested in the theory that the bookmakers’ odds are useful for determining results. I think this might be because I like elections, and punters’ odds are oft-touted as superior to pollsters. You could say that bookmakers’ odds on elections are worth knowing about because they represent the psychology of punters. But there’s a huge amount of psychology in sport too, so I am going to use this space to ponder those elements. The year I did best at footy tipping was the year I spent time pondering the psychology of win-loss ratios, traditional antipathy, inter-team rivalry, home game advantage and winning-losing streaks. So here’s a start.
Your thoughts and opinions on the first round can be left here – I didn’t see a single one of the games, so I rely on your assessments.
UPDATE: I really think I’ll use this season to weigh up punting versus tipping. Using my own admittedly poor tipping record (I’m too partisan to tip well), I will compare weekly results with the punting. So, this week, Partisan Tipster got 4/8 (2 upsets and 2 predicted wins) and Punters got 4/8 (four predicted wins). Even stevens!
2 responses so far ↓
Shaun // Apr 2, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Sorry, I had my cricket club’s presentation on Saturday and missed all the Swans action.
Good point re the bookies. If unsure or don’t have a real feeling for a game, I go the bookies. Be interesting to do the same for the NRL over the season and see what happens.
Five // Apr 3, 2007 at 9:54 am
Oztips now include the bookmakers’ odds on the front page so you can see them as you tip. I think this is an interesting approach – as the season rolls on we’ll see how flawed it is.
What is football without underdog triumphs and upset victories?